For nearly two decades, the Accelerated Study in Associate Programs (ASAP) at the City University of New York (CUNY) has been heralded as the gold standard of community college reform. Designed to solve the systemic crisis of student attrition, the program provides intensive academic advisement, financial assistance for textbooks and transportation, and mandatory support services. While the model has been remarkably successful in boosting graduation rates, a comprehensive 14-year longitudinal study recently released by the independent research organization MDRC has revealed a startling finding: the significant uptick in degrees earned has not resulted in a corresponding increase in long-term earnings for participants. This revelation challenges the long-held assumption that completing a two-year degree is an automatic ticket to middle-class financial stability.
A Chronology of the ASAP Model
The ASAP initiative was launched in 2007, a time when CUNY administrators were grappling with dismal graduation rates. Data at the time indicated that a majority of community college students were leaving school without credentials, often saddled with debt and limited employment prospects. The program’s premise was simple yet resource-intensive: remove the financial and logistical barriers to full-time enrollment while ensuring students were guided by dedicated counselors.
In 2010, the program underwent a rigorous evaluation via a randomized controlled trial—the most definitive methodology in social science. Researchers tracked 900 low-income students, assigning them either to the ASAP cohort or a control group. By 2013, the results were hailed as a breakthrough: 40 percent of ASAP participants had secured degrees, compared to only 22 percent of their peers. These findings triggered a national movement. Between 2010 and the present, the "CUNY recipe" has been exported to more than 90 colleges across 11 states, with tens of thousands of students currently enrolled in similar iterations.
The Earnings Paradox: What the 14-Year Data Reveals
The most recent MDRC follow-up, which tracked participants through 2024, paints a more complex picture. While the graduation gap between the ASAP group and the control group remained, with 58 percent of the former earning degrees compared to 50 percent of the latter, the economic dividends did not follow. According to New York state employment data, there was no statistically significant difference in lifetime earnings between those who participated in the program and those who did not.
The average annual income for both groups hovers at approximately $37,000. This figure includes periods of unemployment, which effectively drags down the mean. Even when accounting for the fact that a college degree generally correlates with higher wages in the broader economy, the specific "ASAP effect" on the bottom line has been nullified. Michael Weiss, the lead researcher at MDRC, suggests that these findings are robust, noting that even when factoring in potential out-of-state employment—which is currently being analyzed in follow-up studies—it is unlikely that the data will shift to show a significant financial premium for the ASAP cohort.
Why Degrees Are Not Always Delivering
Economists and educators are now dissecting why a degree does not always function as a reliable engine for social mobility. One primary theory involves the nature of the degrees themselves. During the initial years of the study, the ASAP program intentionally steered students away from high-demand, high-salary fields like nursing or advanced healthcare technology, often pushing students toward the liberal arts. While a liberal arts degree provides foundational knowledge, it often lacks the direct, high-wage labor market demand associated with technical or vocational credentials.
Furthermore, the data suggests that "stop-out" students—those who leave college without a degree—may sometimes enter the workforce earlier and gain consistent on-the-job training. A student who leaves school to manage a retail store may, in some cases, accrue more consistent earnings than a graduate who struggles to find employment in their chosen field of study. Additionally, the study found that the ASAP program had minimal impact on the completion of bachelor’s degrees, which typically act as the primary catalyst for significant long-term income growth. Only about 3 percent of the studied population saw a meaningful acceleration in attaining a four-year degree.
Shifting Institutional Strategies
The findings have sparked a quiet but intense debate within the landscape of higher education policy. Some institutions, such as those in North Carolina, have already begun to pivot. Recognizing that the "degree-at-all-costs" approach may be insufficient, they are now prioritizing "workforce-aligned" majors. By excluding liberal arts and focusing on high-demand sectors, these schools aim to ensure that a degree is synonymous with employability.
Conversely, leadership at CUNY maintains that the program’s value extends beyond the ledger. Christine Brongniart, executive director of the CUNY ASAP program, has stated that the institution remains committed to an inclusive model. The argument is that the university’s role is to provide access to education for all students regardless of their field of choice, and that there are intangible societal benefits to higher education—such as civic engagement and personal development—that are not captured in annual salary data.
However, the fiscal reality is impossible to ignore. With an annual budget exceeding $76 million and a per-student cost of $3,400, taxpayers and policymakers are increasingly looking for tangible economic returns. The program has become more efficient over time, increasing the caseloads of advisors to lower costs, but the pressure to demonstrate "return on investment" is mounting.
Future Implications and External Perspectives
While the New York data is sobering, it is not the only piece of the puzzle. A separate, ongoing evaluation of an ASAP-style program in Ohio has shown different results, with participants demonstrating significant earnings gains six to eight years after enrollment. This suggests that the effectiveness of such programs may be highly dependent on regional labor markets and the demographic composition of the student body.
Organizations like Arnold Ventures, which provide philanthropic backing for the expansion of these programs, have emphasized that single studies—even those as rigorous as the 14-year MDRC report—should not lead to the immediate abandonment of promising interventions. "Single studies rarely provide complete answers," the foundation noted in a recent statement, suggesting that the path to a middle-class life is multi-faceted and rarely defined by a single academic intervention.
Conclusion: Beyond the Graduation Finish Line
The lesson from the last 14 years is that the "finish line" of graduation is not the destination, but merely the starting point. The ASAP program has succeeded in its primary goal: it has helped thousands of students overcome barriers to complete their associate degrees. Yet, the lack of an earnings premium serves as a powerful reminder that education policy must be inextricably linked to labor market strategy.
As the program continues to evolve, incorporating more robust career coaching, resume workshops, and guidance into lucrative career paths, the focus is shifting toward "Plan B" strategies—helping students navigate the reality of a modern economy where a degree is necessary, but not sufficient. For those looking to replicate the success of CUNY in other states, the data suggests that while intensive support is vital for completion, it must be paired with clear, actionable, and market-responsive career pathways to ensure that graduation leads to the economic stability students are rightfully pursuing.
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